Historical Analysis
40 years of NCAA Tournament data (1985-2025) · Seed performance, upsets, and Cinderella runs
1 Seeds Win %
99.3%
16 Over 1 Upsets
2
12 Over 5 Rate
35%
Avg R64 Upsets
8.5
Win Rate by Seed
Historical percentage of teams advancing by round (1985-2025)
Upset Trend
Total first-round upsets per tournament year
Legendary Upsets
#16
UMBC def. Virginia
2018 · R64 · 74-54
16 over 1
#16
FDU def. Purdue
2023 · R64 · 63-58
16 over 1
#15
Saint Peter's def. Kentucky
2022 · R64 · 85-79 OT
15 over 2
#15
Oral Roberts def. Ohio State
2021 · R64 · 75-72 OT
15 over 2
#11
VCU def. Kansas
2011 · E8 · 71-61
11 over 1
#11
Loyola Chicago def. Tennessee
2018 · R32 · 63-62
11 over 3
#11
George Mason def. UConn
2006 · E8 · 86-84 OT
11 over 1
#8
Villanova def. Georgetown
1985 · Championship · 66-64
8 over 1
Cinderella Runs
2023
FAU(#9 seed)
Final Four2022
Saint Peter's(#15 seed)
Elite Eight2021
UCLA(#11 seed)
Final Four2018
Loyola Chicago(#11 seed)
Final Four2011
VCU(#11 seed)
Final Four2006
George Mason(#11 seed)
Final Four2003
Syracuse(#3 seed)
Champion1985
Villanova(#8 seed)
ChampionWhy Arizona at 22%
Historical Edge
1-seeds win the title 22.5% of the time historically. Arizona's 93.1 adjusted defense ranks in the top 5% of all tournament 1-seeds since 1985.
Path Advantage
The West Region is projected as the most favorable for a 1-seed, with no other team above 5% title probability in their quadrant.
Matchup Profile
Arizona's defensive identity historically travels well in March. Elite defenses win 60% of tournament games decided by 5 or fewer points.