Championship Model
Probability estimates for all tournament contenders ยท Updated pre-tournament
Favorite
Arizona
Title Prob
22%
Teams Modeled
11
1-Seeds Avg
15%
Methodology
Our model combines KenPom adjusted efficiency margins, strength of schedule, recent form (last 10 games), injury impact, tournament experience, and home-court advantage for regional sites. Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) produces probability distributions for each round. The model favors Arizona due to elite defense (93.1 adj. defensive efficiency), tournament experience, and depth โ giving them a 22% championship probability, the highest in the field.
Championship Probability Rankings
| # | Team | Seed | Region | Title % | F4 % | E8 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona30-4 ๐ | 1 | West | 22% | 48% | 62% |
| 2 | Houston30-3 | 2 | South | 16% | 42% | 58% |
| 3 | Duke29-5 | 1 | East | 14% | 38% | 52% |
| 4 | Florida28-6 | 1 | South | 8% | 28% | 44% |
| 5 | Michigan27-7 | 1 | Midwest | 6% | 22% | 38% |
| 6 | UConn26-8 | 2 | East | 5% | 18% | 32% |
| 7 | Purdue27-7 | 2 | West | 5% | 18% | 34% |
| 8 | Iowa State27-6 | 2 | Midwest | 4% | 16% | 30% |
| 9 | Illinois25-9 | 3 | South | 3% | 12% | 24% |
| 10 | Gonzaga27-6 | 3 | West | 3% | 14% | 26% |
| 11 | Michigan State24-10 | 3 | East | 2% | 10% | 20% |
Team Deep Dive
๐
ฐ๏ธ
Arizona๐
1 seed ยท West ยท Big 12 ยท 30-4
22%
Title Prob
Elite Eight62%
Final Four48%
Championship22%
122.3
Adj. Off
93.1
Adj. Def
71.2
Tempo
Strengths
+ Elite defense
+ Tournament experience
+ Depth
Weaknesses
โ Free throw shooting (68%)
Key Players
Jaden Bradley (PG)16.2p ยท 3.8r ยท 6.1a
KJ Lewis (SG)14.8p ยท 5.2r ยท 2.4a
Motiejus Krivas (C)12.1p ยท 8.9r ยท 1.2a