Championship Model
Live probability estimates โ updates as games finish
Favorite
Arizona
Arizona Title %
22%
Teams Alive
11/11
Eliminated
0
Methodology
Our model combines KenPom adjusted efficiency margins, strength of schedule, recent form, injury impact, and regional site advantages. Probabilities update live as teams are eliminated โ their probability mass redistributes proportionally to surviving teams. Teams that advance get a small boost for demonstrated tournament performance. The model favors Arizona due to elite defense (93.1 adj. defensive efficiency), tournament experience, and depth.
Live Championship Probability Rankings
| # | Team | Seed | Region | Title % | F4 % | E8 % | Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona30-4 ๐ | 1 | West | 22% | 48% | 62% | โ |
| 2 | Houston30-3 | 2 | South | 16% | 42% | 58% | โ |
| 3 | Duke29-5 | 1 | East | 14% | 38% | 52% | โ |
| 4 | Florida28-6 | 1 | South | 8% | 28% | 44% | โ |
| 5 | Michigan27-7 | 1 | Midwest | 6% | 22% | 38% | โ |
| 6 | UConn26-8 | 2 | East | 5% | 18% | 32% | โ |
| 7 | Purdue27-7 | 2 | West | 5% | 18% | 34% | โ |
| 8 | Iowa State27-6 | 2 | Midwest | 4% | 16% | 30% | โ |
| 9 | Illinois25-9 | 3 | South | 3% | 12% | 24% | โ |
| 10 | Gonzaga27-6 | 3 | West | 3% | 14% | 26% | โ |
| 11 | Michigan State24-10 | 3 | East | 2% | 10% | 20% | โ |
Team Deep Dive
๐
ฐ๏ธ
Arizona๐
1 seed ยท West ยท Big 12 ยท 30-4
22%
Title Prob
Elite Eight62%
Final Four48%
Championship22%
122.3
Adj. Off
93.1
Adj. Def
71.2
Tempo
Strengths
+ Elite defense
+ Tournament experience
+ Depth
Weaknesses
โ Free throw shooting (68%)
Key Players
Jaden Bradley (PG)16.2p ยท 3.8r ยท 6.1a
KJ Lewis (SG)14.8p ยท 5.2r ยท 2.4a
Motiejus Krivas (C)12.1p ยท 8.9r ยท 1.2a